Tag Archives: Congressional Budget Office

Federal Deficit To Reach $1.5 Trillion – Largest Gap In History

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By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, January 26, 2011; 10:28 AM

The weak economy and fresh tax cuts approved last month will help drive the federal budget deficit to $1.5 trillion this year, the biggest budget gap in history and one of the largest as a share of the economy since World War II, congressional budget analysts said Wednesday.

“Economic developments, and the government’s responses to them, have – of course – had a big impact on the budget,” the Congressional Budget Office said in its semi-annual budget outlook.

“We estimate that if current laws remain unchanged, the budget deficit this year will be close to $1.5 trillion, or 9.8 percent of [gross domestic product]. That would follow deficits of 10 percent of GDP last year and 8.9 percent in the previous year, the three largest deficits since 1945. As a result, debt held by the public will probably jump from 40 percent of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2008 to nearly 70 percent at the end of fiscal year 2011.”

If current laws remain unchanged, the CBO said, budget deficits “would drop markedly over the next few years as a share of output,” averaging 3.6 percent of GDP from 2012 through 2021 and totaling nearly $7 trillion over the decade. However, that projection assumes all the Bush tax cuts will expire in 2012 and that Congress will make other changes to raise taxes — an uncertain bet.

montgomeryl@washpost.com

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Obama Stimulus Measure Begins Shaping Up

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by Donny Shaw

I’m down in D.C. today and tomorrow for the excellent Gov 2.0 summit, hearing from a great bunch of folks from both inside and outside government on how the internet and open data can be harnessed to bolster transparency and efficiency, and improve governance through a more participatory civic infrastructure. You can follow along on Twitter using the #g2s hashtag and you can stream some session live here.

Before I dive too far into the exciting world of gov 2.0, here’s a quick update on the Obama stimulus measure that is probably going to keep Congress busy from when they return to D.C. on Monday until they adjourn sometime in September.

First and foremost, the payroll tax holiday, an idea favored by most Republicans and that probably would have been swallowed without too much bitterness by most Democrats, is now, reportedly, off the table. At this point, here’s what the new Obama stimulus package is looking like:

1) Allowing businesses to deduct 100% of their equipment purchases from their taxes through 2011. This would be the deepest business reinvestment incentive in recent history. According to the NYT, it would cost the federal government about $200 billion in lost revenues, $170 billion of which is expected to be recouped eventually through revenue gains when/if the stimulus measures start turning the economy around.

2) Making the research and development tax credit permanent. This credit has been in place, nearly constantly, for the past 30 years. But it’s always been done through temporary extensions, and the politics and uncertainty involved in it have put a bit of a damper on its effect. Making it permanent should make businesses more confident that they can predict the costs associated with investing in innovation.

3) New infrastructure investments. Obama yesterday announced that he plans to call for $50 billion in new spending for infrastructure projects — roads, trains, and runways — to be organized through a new “infrastructure bank” that would give priority to projects that are able to attract private funds. To pay for the projects, he is proposing to eliminate some oil and gas company tax breaks and loopholes that have been in place since the late 90’s.

Media Matters for America: Jocelyn Fong: Worst headline I’ve seen all day , and 2 more…

Now, it’s hard to imagine this infrastructure spending not being lopped off in the Senate. Assuming Sen. Ben Nelson [D, NE] is a no, if all other Democrats voted in favor of it (and that’s a big if), they’d still need 2 Republican votes to break an inevitable filibuster. But the usual Republican cross-overs haven’t been biting on Dem stimulus plans for the past few months. And as the campaign season begins in earnest, Republican cross-over votes are even less likely.

Plus, it’s already been shown that the plan to end oil company tax breaks can’t survive on its own. In June, Sen. Bernie Sanders [I, VT] brought an amendment to end the tax breaks to a vote and it failed miserably, 35-61. Twenty-one Democrats and all Republicans voted against it.

Also noteworthy is one thing that has not been floated for inclusion in the package — extending unemployment benefits. The CBO recently found that unemployment benefits are the most stimulative form of government spending, more than twice as stimulative as equipment investment credits and significantly more effective than infrastructure spending. Yet, after Nov. 30, none of the millions of long-term unemployed will be eligible for insurance payments. Not to mention the millions of 99ers who continue to be ignored.

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Congress Links

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August 23, 2010 – by Hilary Worden

The CBO issues a report on the Bush-era tax cuts, Sen. Lindsey Graham forms a new opinion on Afghanistan, and more in today’s Congress links.

* The Congressional Budget Office says that a short-term extension of the Bush tax cuts would boost GDP 0.6 to 1.7 percentage points and reduce the unemployment rate by 0.3 to 0.8 percent, but that extending them for too long would create “daunting long-term fiscal challenges” and “reduce long-term economic growth”. (The Hill)
* On the topic of tax policy, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell asks “when did it all of a sudden become something that we, quote, ‘pay for?’” (Washington Post)
* House Democrats will be pushing their small-business agenda this week. (The Hill)
* After a trip to Afghanistan, Sen. Lindsey Graham [R-SC] says he thinks some U.S. troops could begin withdrawing next July. (Senatus)
* The Obama administration is rewriting medical privacy rules, after criticism from Congress members of both parties, as well as consumer groups. (The NY Times)
* Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin [D-IL] voices his support for the Islamic community center in Lower Manhattan, saying its opponents are trying “to divide America with fear and hate over this issue” (The Hill). Rep. Eric Cantor [R-VA] says its builders are “insensitive” and “not interested in healing” (Politico).

Obama takes Illinois Mistakes Nationwide

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by Phyllis Schlafley

“Unsustainable” is a scary word that recently entered political discourse, coming authoritatively from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf. Unsustainability is the operative moniker for Barack Obama’s massive deficit spending, which Elmendorf said “cannot be solved through minor tinkering.”

The CBO predicts an increase in our public debt from $7.5 trillion at the end of 2009 to $20.3 trillion at the end of 2020 if Obama’s fiscal 2011 budget is implemented. As a percentage of gross domestic product, the debt will rise from 53 percent to 90 percent.

Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) sharpened the focus by asking the CBO Director: “What’s going to be necessary [is] either a 25 percent increase in taxes or a 20 percent reduction in spending, or some combination thereof. Is that correct?” Elmendorf replied “yes.”

Americans are beginning to wonder if Greece is the picture of America’s future. But we need look no further than the place where Obama and his team were trained in community organizing and bully tactics to redistribute the wealth: Illinois.

Illinois was the stomping ground for years for Obama, his top advisers Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, and his appointees such as Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. After they promoted themselves to Washington to run the country, other Obama associates who didn’t make the cut continued to run Illinois into the ground as the Illinois unemployment rate jumped from less than 5 percent to nearly 11 percent.

For years, we thought California was the most fiscally irresponsible of all 50 states, but Illinois has now taken the lead. A lengthy news article in the New York Times was headlined: “Illinois Stops Paying Its Bills, but Can’t Stop Digging Hole.”

Under years of Democratic leadership, Illinois has refused to honor its obligations, cut its spending, or trim its shockingly large deficit, which at $12 billion per year approaches nearly half its annual budget. As a result, Illinois’ credit rating has been downgraded and it pays a massive amount in interest on its loans.

That’s like a family making $50,000 but spending $75,000 each year. Obviously, it won’t take long before such a family would lose everything it has.

The big-majority Democratic state legislature, defying Illinois’ balanced-budget law, has been passing deficit budgets for years. The new definition of a liberal is no longer tax-and-spend; it’s borrow-and-spend.

It’s no surprise that unemployment keep increasing, and the reason why the rate isn’t higher than we are told is that the government has stopped counting people who have given up looking for a job. Employers are not hiring because taxes and regulations are expected to rise.

Starting January 1, 28 million middle Americans will be socked with a massive Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) which Republicans had eliminated. That’s a “gotcha” which penalizes taxpayers in ways they never expect, adding big tax penalties based on an “alternative” way of calculating taxes due.

Upper-income Americans will see a big jump in their marginal tax rates. Their accountants are already telling them that the more they work, the less additional money they will take home, so they may be already slowing down, canceling investments, or retiring to draw Social Security.

Hardworking parents who are saving for their children’s future will be hit by the reinstatement of the massive “death tax” on January 1. They may wonder why they work hard and save if their money will go to Uncle Sam and to people who choose not to work.

Marriage penalties will hit couples hard, both in the income tax law and in Obamacare. Obama’s financial favoritism toward unmarried women, his second biggest voting bloc, has become common knowledge.

Those who choose to control their own health care through Health Savings Accounts will be slapped with new taxes. That’s just one more way to promote Obama’s goal of moving all health care to government control.

Employers are not hiring because they know they will soon be paying not only higher taxes but also more health care costs or penalties. Depreciation allowances for investment in equipment will be lowered from $250,000 to $25,000, which means businesses will do less investing.

Our ability to compete in the marketplace, of course, depends on our advanced research and development. New taxes will hit R&D hard, which means more slowdowns and more outsourcing overseas.

The expiration of the Republican tax cuts will impose the largest tax hikes in history, affecting all taxpayers. The nearly 50 percent who pay no taxes will also be hurt by more loss of jobs.

There is only one antidote for these depressing prognostications. On November 2, American voters will have the chance to choose real change from Obama’s failed Illinois borrow-and-spend policies by electing Republicans who commit to extend the expiring tax cuts.

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